FOREX

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Bernanke's testimony contained little for the market to hang its hat on relative to expectations. The only market with a volatile move during his testimony was the bond market, as bonds rallied very strongly on the day yesterday - perhaps due to some relief on the Fed's credibility, or perhaps due to market manipulation, according to the conspiracy theorists out there. Some are reporting that the Fed was actively intervening in the 7-year auction. A market manipulation theory actually looks more plausible than normal, since the bond market reaction was far more pronounced than the ho-hum response in equities and FX, markets that normally respond strongly to the same inputs that makes the bond market move.
Regardless, although Mr. Bernanke will deliver his testimony again today - this time to the Senate - and have to endure another Q&A session with lawmakers, the focus has quickly shifted today to US bank earnings, as Morgan Stanley reported a rather steep loss (due to its lack of a federal/tax payer insured prop desk/casino that Goldman Sachs enjoys) and Wells Fargo produced results that beat expectations but failed to impress the market nonetheless.
GBP caught a bid today as the PM Brown and the BoE's Bean were out with a positive outlook on the economy and on the BoE minutes. The positive words from the BoE will supposedly decrease the likelihood of further aggressive QE policies, allowing GBP to catch a bit of a bid on relief about the perceived reduction of the threat of further devaluation. In other UK news, the July CBI report showed optimism at the highest levels in some time even as actual Factory Orders fell to the worst level since 1992. The US bank news is not good news either, so any GBP rally may be short-lived, especially if risk aversion rears its ugly head again.
Canada reported strong Retail Sales for May - rather ancient history now that we're barely a week away from August. USDCAD is at an interesting point here for the cycle in this 1.1000 area. It's difficult to understand why the loonie should press much stronger here unless we expect the market to launch yet another surge higher in risk appetite while crude oil heads to 75 dollars a barrel. We'll be looking for strong signs of support in the 1.10 area - with the possibility of a 1.0800 test - as the loonie looks overvalued.
Whether bond markets were manipulated or not yesterday, they bear the most watching today a coincident indicator. JPY crosses are showing signs of wanting to ease lower again, but will need cooperation from the bond market and signs of toppishness in equities and risk as well. USDJPY seems to be ambivalent about moving to new lows today and EURJPY has bounced back a bit as well. EM currencies and equity markets have come storming back again over the last couple of weeks as it seems market players simply can't seem to put on enough risk in anticipation of a Great Recovery. Is this what really awaits in the second half?
The Euro, the "default currency" (meaning it is showing no signs of independent movement, not anything to do with a default in the fixed income sense...) remains directionless and we wonder how many sticks of dynamite it will take to dislodge it and generate some volatility. The next hope from a data perspective comes with Friday's German IFO survey, one that has shown far less recovery than the equity market and a survey that is one of the better leading indicators for the German economy